Takeover Activity in Germany
An Analysis of Premia Charakteristics
- Art: Diplomarbeit
- Autor: Philipp H. von Mitzlaff
- Abgabedatum: Dezember 2001
- Umfang: 110 Seiten
- Dateigröße: 1,0 MB
- Note: 2,3
- Institution / Hochschule: Johann Wolfgang Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main Deutschland
- ISBN (eBook): 978-3-8324-5284-1
-
ISBN (Paperback) :
978-3-8324-5284-1 P - ISBN (CD) :978-3-8324-5284-1 CD
- Sprache: Englisch
- Prämierung:
- Arbeit zitieren: von Mitzlaff, Philipp H. Dezember 2001: Takeover Activity in Germany, Hamburg: Diplomica Verlag
- Schlagworte: M&A, Übernahmeprämie, Merger+Acquisition, Takeover, Premia
In den Warenkorb
58,00 €
Diplomarbeit von Philipp H. von Mitzlaff
Abstract:
I analyze the characteristics of premia in German takeovers of publicly listed corporations. I employ a unique data set of 167 transactions to examine the effects of toeholds, threshold crossings, means of payment, voluntary versus mandatory offers and premia cyclicity due to macroeconomic and financial variables.
First, a descriptive analysis reveals that premia levels are substantially below levels in the Anglo-American markets. Cash constitutes the primary mode of payment and dominates equity offering. Also the trend of higher premia levels in a growing takeover market is observable. An investigation of transaction characteristics shows that premia and toehold size, stake size and offer period are significantly and negatively correlated. An investigation in threshold crosses reveals significantly higher median premia if a threshold-cross was observable.
Second, constructed market-, market-adjusted and mean-adjusted models virtually demonstrate the same results.
Third, Jensen-Alpha demonstrates that target stocks are low beta targets implying that they are generally defensive. Rising alpha coefficients parallel an increase in bid premia and are substantially higher for cash than equity offers, voluntary are superior to mandatory offers and bids involving toeholds dominate average premia.
Fourth, regressions of premia on firm characteristics, but only the price to cash flow ratio regression reveals statistical significance.
Fifth, the degree to which aggregate cyclical fluctuations have accounted for shifts in merger premia are measured and macroeconomic and financial variables that have the highest impacts on premia levels are identified modeling ARIMA-processes. Changes in interest and stock prices are identified to be the main premia driving forces. The analysis of the cross-correlation structure demonstrates that shifts in bond yields and stock prices can be used as indicators for future changes in merger premia. Finally a multivariate Box-Jenkins approach quantifies the relationship between the input variables and the response parameter bid premia.
Table of Contents:
| List of Tables | V | |
| List of Figures | VI | |
| List of SymbolsAbbreviations | VII | |
| List of Symbols | IX | |
| 1. | Introduction | 12 |
| 1.1 | M&A-Business collapses worldwide | 12 |
| 1.2 | Merger and Acquisition Premiums | 13 |
| 1.3 | Is there a correct price for an acquisition? | 14 |
| 1.4 | A practitioner’s view - The valuation aspect | 16 |
| 2. | Ownership, Control and Takeover Activity in Germany | 18 |
| 2.1 | Corporate Governance | 19 |
| 2.2 | Tender Offers | 21 |
| 2.3 | The German Takeover Law- Key issues of the law for regulation of takeovers | 24 |
| 2.3.1 | Payment | 25 |
| 2.3.2 | Formation of time limits | 26 |
| 2.3.3 | Neutrality-duty | 26 |
| 2.3.4 | Supervision | 27 |
| 2.4 | The Nature of German Takeover Activity | 27 |
| 2.5 | The German Takeover Market in Transition | 28 |
| 3. | Determinants of Control Premia | 29 |
| 3.1 | Financial Basics | 29 |
| 3.2 | Sources of Takeover Premia | 29 |
| 3.3 | What Acquisitions Premia constitute | 32 |
| 3.4 | Sources of value increases from M&As | 33 |
| 3.5 | Allocation of the „profit margin „in public tender offers | 33 |
| 3.6 | Regulatory | 34 |
| 3.7 | Appraisal Remedy | 35 |
| 3.8 | Taxes | 36 |
| 3.9 | Financial | 36 |
| 3.10 | Toeholds | 36 |
| 3.11 | Method of Payment | 36 |
| 3.12 | Funding of M&A transactions | 37 |
| 3.13 | Cash Offer vs. Stock Offer: Theory | 37 |
| 3.14 | Pre Bid Runup (Insider Trading) | 38 |
| 3.15 | Accounting Treatment / Summary Accounting | 38 |
| 3.16 | Managerial | 40 |
| 3.17 | Hostility/Bid Resistance Competition | 40 |
| 4. | Previous Premia Examinations | 42 |
| 4.1 | Premia in the United States | 42 |
| 4.2 | Premia in Germany | 44 |
| 4.3 | Summary Table | 45 |
| 5. | Data and Methodology | 46 |
| 5.1 | Data | 46 |
| 5.2 | Descriptive Analysis | 47 |
| 5.3 | Market adjusted models | 48 |
| 5.4 | Measurement of Abnormal Returns | 48 |
| 5.5 | The Mean Adjusted Return Method | 49 |
| 5.6 | The Market Model Method | 50 |
| 5.7 | The Market Adjusted Return Method | 51 |
| 6. | Descriptive and Empirical Results | 54 |
| 6.1 | Descriptive Analysis | 54 |
| 6.2 | Empirical Analysis | 61 |
| 6.3 | Average Alpha (Jensen Measure) and Beta Coefficients | 64 |
| 6.4 | Investigating Regressions of Premia on Firm Characteristics | 65 |
| 6.4.1 | Price/Earnings Ratio (PE) | 66 |
| 6.4.2 | Price to Cash Flow Ratio | 67 |
| 6.4.3 | Market Capitalization | 68 |
| 6.4.4 | Price to Book Value Ratio | 68 |
| 6.4.5 | Trading Volume to Market Capitalization Ratio | 69 |
| 6.4.6 | Sales Increase | 69 |
| 6.5 | Trading vs. Transactions Multiples | 71 |
| 6.5.1 | Methodology | 71 |
| 6.5.2 | Data and Results | 71 |
| 7. | Mergers and Business Cycles | 75 |
| 7.1 | Literature Review | 76 |
| 7.2 | Data and Methodology | 79 |
| 7.3 | Empirical Analysis | 81 |
| 7.4 | Univariate Time Series Model | 81 |
| 7.5 | Cross Correlation Among the Prewhitened Series | 84 |
| 7.6 | Model I: Linkages from real and financial activity to premia | 87 |
| 7.7 | A Multiple Time Series Regression | 88 |
| 8. | Conclusions | 91 |
| References | 94 | |
| List of Internet Sources | 99 | |
| Appendix | 101 | |
| 9.1 | Table: Valuation Methods | 101 |
| 9.2 | Check for Stationarity of the Input Parameters | 102 |
| 9.3 | U.S. and German Governance Structures in Comparison (Hommel) | 103 |
| 9.4 | Transactions in Germany | 104 |
| 9.5 | Transaction-development in Germany | 104 |
| 9.6 | Price in Billion of takeover transactions in DM 2) | 105 |
| 9.7 | Target- and buyer-lines of business of transactions in the year 2000 | 105 |
| 9.8 | Concentration degrees 1988-1998 and 1998 in German transactions | 106 |
| 9.9 | Sizes of German transactions | 106 |
| 9.10 | Top transactions in Germany in the year 2000 | 107 |
| 9.11 | Variables in Models of the Merger and Takeover Processes | 107 |
| 9.12 | Ehrenwörtliche Erklärung | 125 |
In den Warenkorb
58,00 €
Link zur Arbeit:
http://www.diplom.de/ean/9783832452841
Arbeit zitieren:
von Mitzlaff, Philipp H. Dezember 2001: Takeover Activity in Germany, Hamburg: Diplomica Verlag
Schlagworte:
M&A, Übernahmeprämie, Merger+Acquisition, Takeover, Premia
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