Personal Intelligent User Interfaces 2008

Diplomarbeit von Markus Fischer

Abstract:

The evolution of computing and communication is on the fast track - its impact on work and life style is immense and carries with it vast social and economical implications for both individuals and enterprises. Advances in wireless and broadband technologies and trends such as pervasive networks, fixed-mobile convergence, seamless communication and sensor networks will have a broader impact and an even more profound influence on the way we live than the personal computer, PDA, cellular phone and Internet had from 1995-2005.

„Always on” and „ubiquity”, the credos of today's ICT market, have already become customer demands. Under constrain to satisfy these demands, generate new service revenues, and retain higher percentages of existing customers worldwide, operating telecommunication companies have to break new ground. Personalization is considered a key differentiator in the increasingly competitive landscape. With the increasing proliferation of service types and features, a personal intelligent user interface will enable higher customer utility and also make new service scenarios possible.

The main problem areas discussed in this thesis are technology forecast and usability evaluation of a new technology. Two well known quotations as follows will introduce the problem of technology forecasting. „This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” A more contemporary the following statement by William Gates III from 1981: „640Kbyte ought to be enough for anybody.” These statements might cause amazement, especially considering the fact that both companies are still in business.

Admittedly, as the telephone replaced the telegraph, money transfer became the Western Union Telegraph Company's primary line of business. However, this begs the question how such companies were even capable of surviving such major misjudgements regarding their strategic technology alignment. Generally speaking, the only possible strategies were changing the focus of their business (as was the case with Western Union), simply „getting lucky” or, alternatively, having enough money to assimilate the missing technology through purchases.

But it can’t be the goal of a global player to miss or loose millions and, in the case of a small firm, to go out of business simply because the chief executive or the person in charge misdiagnosed strategic technology management, especially because it is avoidable. In order to survive in today’s highly competitive environment as a companies a consolidate knowledge about the methodologies and possibilities has become indispensable. Therefore, in the first part of this thesis, the reader will be provided with a kind of „basic toolkit” regarding technology forecasts, the application of which will be shown on the basis of the PIUI research in course of this dissertation.

Similar questions were posed by Dr. Stuckenschneider, head of strategic marketing within Siemens corporate technology. During an information luncheon in Lucerne in 2005, he confronted his audience consisting of managers with the following crucial questions: „1. What are attractive new technologies for the enterprise?

The shortcomings of a determined attempt to successfully integrate desktop UI technology like WIMP (Windows, Icons, Mouse, Pull-Down Menu) into next generation communication devices (like smart phones, PDAs, etc.) are conspicuous. As Professor John Canny from the UC Berkeley puts it: If you've tried interacting with a non-trivial smart-phone application, you'll know what an ordeal it can be. There has been a brave effort to evolve it from its WIMP interface roots, but it just feels wrong - like a shark in a shopping mall.

Furthermore, a whole range of highly sophisticated gadgets whose purpose is to make our lives more convenient and enjoyable has invaded our living rooms in recent years. One example would be a state-of-the-art HD-TV set. It has internet connectivity, a hard drive capable of storing seemingly endless hours of TV programming, and all the necessary hardware to connect to any conceivable media device.

It does not yet include the software, but it is only a matter of time before this will change. The time has clearly come for a new breed of user interfaces. In response to Dr. Stuckenschneider’s first question, this thesis will give the reader the opportunity to obtain comprehensive knowledge of one of the most attractive and promising new technologies for the information and communication technology (ICT) market – intelligent user interfaces (IUIs) and, in the next phase, personal intelligent user interfaces (PIUIs).

In addition, in order to assist those struggling to come up with an answer to the second question, a framework is presented to evaluate the usability of IUIs. The discussion of the goals starts with a brief overview of the area of strategic technology management in order to facilitate the understanding of the focus of the thesis and the importance of technology forecasting. This is followed by an individual introduction of the strategic technology management methods applied in this thesis and of the field of personal intelligent user interfaces. Both fields of interest are defined and examined in detail to provide a comprehensive theoretical base for the subsequent chapters.

Tying in with chapter two, chapter three uses previously presented definitions and theories in order to develop a user requirements framework, and, in the end, to define high potential use cases. First, the importance of usability for overall user acceptance is examined. Therefore, existing international standards for usability in the area of human computer interaction will be analyzed.

Following that, these findings together with external and internal expert assessments are processed to determine significant attributes for the evaluation of intelligent user interface technologies. Thereafter, the relevance matrix, which determines the fulfilment relevance gap for intelligent user interfaces, will be presented. This is again the key to determine the time until broad market user acceptance for a certain technology. Defining usage scenarios and elucidating their importance in order to find the most promising personal intelligent user interfaces till 2008 completes chapter three.

In chapter four, an in-depth analysis of all the selected interface technologies provided. After a brief description of each technology, its main user requirements are discussed using the findings from the gap analysis. This is followed by an assessment of the time to the previously mentioned user acceptance and a list of possible use cases.

The concluding chapter five gives an outlook on further research needs, raises questions which could not be answered within the scope of this thesis and provides a critical review of the thesis. It closes with a proof of concept by showing that one of the developed high potential use cases of 2005 has been realized by major ICT companies just recently.

Table of Contents:

Table of Contents:

Text Sample:

Chapter 2.2.1.5, Gap Analysis: In this thesis the generated user requirements matrix resulted in a relevance assessment for each technology as well as a fulfilment assessment, finally leading to a gap analysis. The method can be defined as „the process of determining, documenting, and approving the variance between business requirements and system capabilities in terms of packaged application features and technical architecture.

In the case of technology forecasting were the target state is a more or less a fictional state, thus it is necessary to develop at first a vision for the future state. In this instance it is a gap analysis between the current state of the art of intelligent user interface technology regarding usability and the desired future state (critical capabilities needed to realize each vision statement).

Full user acceptance based on high usability is in the case under consideration the desired state. The gap analysis provides first of all information about which attribute lags most behind and secondly it gives a criterion how long it will take before the gap is closed by showing how big the actual gap is. The application of the method for this thesis is described in 3.2.1.

According to von Reibnitz, a scenario is the description of a future situation and the development or description of the way leading from today into the future. She makes the case that the ability to create different future situations allows planners to deal with scenarios that fall between two extremes. In her book Scenario Techniques, von Reibnitz describes the process of scenario techniques as follows.

The first step entails an analysis of an organization’s structure, strengths and weaknesses, goals and strategies. Step two involves an examination of areas and factors of external influences with attention to their interrelationship and dynamics in the system. Step three is an analysis of the development of the future of influence factors. Step four clusters different alternatives to form logical and plausible structures for future scenarios. Step five incorporates these structures into scenarios that describe system dynamics and changes. Step six concludes the process with an analysis of opportunities and risks.

Even though von Reibnitz provides a suitable definition and methodology, a clear overall definition of scenarios within economy and social science research is very difficult to find. The reason for that is the fact that in practice and science literature a multitude of ideas and methods exists. The main difference lies in the steps that are necessary to take in order to develop a scenario.

Basis for this thesis is the following definition by Gausemeier, Fink, and Schalke (translated from German): „A scenario is the description of a complex, future situation. Its occurrence can’t be forecasted with certainty. Furthermore it’s the portrait of a development which could lead from the present to this situation.” The goal of generating scenarios is to understand the mix of strategic decisions that are of maximum benefit in the face of various uncertainties and challenges posed by the external environment. Scenario building, in conjunction with a careful analysis of the driving forces, fosters systematic study of potential future possibilities—both good and bad. This forecasting approach enables decision makers and planners to grasp the long-term requirements for sustained advantage, growth, and avoidance of problems.

The Future Group points out that a scenario is a rich and detailed portrait of a plausible future world, one sufficiently vivid that a planner can clearly see and comprehend the problems, challenges, and opportunities that such an environment would present. They also make quite clear that a scenario is not a prediction of specific forecast per se; rather, it is a plausible description of what might occur, which brings them in a line with Gausmeier, Fink, and Schalke.

Because of the multiplicity of forces that shape the future, their complexity and their interactions, the future itself can never be accurately or completely known. Although most planners and futurists today reject the idea that planning should be conducted against a single „most likely” image of the future, the approach taken in this thesis to develop PIUI usage scenarios aims in this direction. The reasons for this approach are multiple.

One is that in order to develop a product scenario usually the most likely user group and use case have to be defined. This reduces the complexity. But, as a matter of fact, due to their special ability to adapt, IUIs and consequently PIUIs have the potential and also demand to be applicable in every possible use case and for every user. Another reason is that the purpose of the thesis is to develop high potential use cases till 2008.

In order to do so, it is assumed that such a use case involves IUIs which are highly developed regarding usability; this is to say the best case. Therefore, the use cases to develop require a „most likely” development of the involved technologies in the future and as described later it is possible to assess when a technology will reach a certain state of maturity.